Some of my research on how population ageing is transforming the demographic profile of Westminster seats is being published today by Age UK.
Britain will soon possess an age profile never seen before in its history, and as society ages so does the electoral register. The report shows how most seats in the House of Commons will elect MPs based on a turnout where grey voters are the majority. It uses the new parliamentary boundaries that will be introduced for a large swathe of seats for the first time at the next general election in 2010.
There’s a wealth of detail in the report and I will blog and comment on some of this over the next few days. Some headline findings include:
- In the coming general election it is estimated that 102 seats in mainland Britain will have 40% or more of turnout comprised of voters aged 65+.
- In this election the number of grey majority seats – that is seats with the majority of turnout coming from voters aged 55 and over - is estimated to increase to 319, meaning that in 2010 most seats in Britain will hold a grey majority.
- In this general election the data suggests there are 46 grey majority seats where the notional majority within the new boundaries is very marginal i.e. a winning majority of five per cent or less. Of these 46 seats 14 are held by Labour, 9 by the Liberal Democrats, 1 by the SNP and 22 by the Conservative Party.
- If we slightly widen our defintion of a marginal seat to include seats where the current majority is 5,000 votes or less, then my research suggests that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are defending 57 “grey marginals” against the apparent rise in vote share for the Conservatives since 2005.
Projecting a future election held in 2025
If we project the data forward to 2025 we can see the bigger picture of the rate of change in the age transformation of the British electorate.
The last general election in 2005 saw voters aged 65 and over go past for the first time the one in four voters mark. As we would expect this figure increases incrementally, so that by an election in 2025 over 30% of turnout will be from the over 65s. However, as the rate of ageing in Wales and Scotland is set to run faster than in England, by 2025 over a third of votes cast in Wales and Scotland will come from the over 65s. In these countries over a period 20 years the “pensioner” vote will increase from a quarter to a third.
Chart: The change from 2005 to 2025 in the proportion of turnout comprised of voters aged 65 and over
| 65+ | 2010 65+ | 2015 65+ | 2025 65+ | |
| England | 24.9 | 26.3 | 27.6 | 30.3 |
| Wales | 27.4 | 29.2 | 31.1 | 34.8 |
| Scotland | 25.1 | 26.7 | 28.3 | 33.0 |
| Great Britain (not inc NI) | 25.1 | 26.5 | 27.8 |
In terms of voters aged 55 and over we also see steady and significant changes in the size of the wider grey vote. At the last election in 2005 the grey vote (all voters aged 55+) was estimated as being 42.6% of turnout. On this report’s assumptions that the age difference in turnout remains unaltered this will rise to 48.9% by 2025, but the grey vote will represent more than half of the votes cast in Wales and Scotland by 2025. The concept of a grey majority that applies to so many constituencies will by 2025 apply to at least 2 of the nations that comprise the United Kingdom.
Chart: The change from 2005 to 2025 in the proportion of turnout comprised of voters aged 55 and over
| Grey Vote 55+ | GE 2005 | GE 2010 | GE 2015 | GE 2025 |
| England | 42.3 | 43.1 | 43.9 | 48.3 |
| Wales | 46.3 | 47.5 | 48.7 | 53.5 |
| Scotland | 42.9 | 44.6 | 46.4 | 52.4 |
| Great Britain | 42.6 | 43.5 | 44.4 | 48.9 |
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